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	<title>Trading Mom &#187; petroleum status report</title>
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	<description>Stock trading in extreme conditions</description>
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		<title>The Great OIL Trade Escape</title>
		<link>http://tradingmom.com/oil-trade-escape/</link>
		<comments>http://tradingmom.com/oil-trade-escape/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:48:45 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Trading news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil fall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OIL trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[petroleum status report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PowerShares DB Oil Fund (AMEX)]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Call it lucky, call it smart, but my OIL trade did pay off. To be completely fair, it caused me a few worrisome days and some strenuous moments with my husband and kids.
Buying OIL at $70.55 on August 6, 2008 was like shooting a bird in the sky (look at my post &#8211; &#8220;OIL has [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Call it lucky, call it smart, but my OIL trade did pay off. To be completely fair, it caused me a few worrisome days and some strenuous moments with my husband and kids.</p>
<p>Buying OIL at $70.55 on August 6, 2008 was like shooting a bird in the sky (look at my post &#8211; <a title="OIL dropped 20% - time to buy?" href="http://tradingmom.com/time-to-buy-oil/" target="_self">&#8220;OIL has dropped 20% &#8211; time to buy?&#8221;</a>. It was a little bit of a gamble and I had to sit in the position for over a week, watching OIL fall as low as $66.32, before it finally stabilized.</p>
<p>This was a good moment to buy more and though I generally don&#8217;t like to double my position this way, I felt it was quite secure to buy another chunk of shares at $67.15 on August 19th. My biggest concern was my investment in OIL represented about 40% of my portfolio. I couldn&#8217;t take it easy anymore and spend trading time playing with kids. I had to watch my position. It doesn&#8217;t matter where the market would move, this had to be a very short term trade.</p>
<p>Preferably just a day trade.</p>
<p>Luckily, my timing was great this time around and OIL closed higher &#8211; at $68.62. Watching the whole trading session, I once again felt that the support has been reached and OIL has a potential to move even higher. So, I decided to keep it overnight.</p>
<p><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="http://tradingmom.com/images/OIL-Aug08-chart-1m.jpg" alt="OIL chart 1 month August 2008" width="520" height="511" /></p>
<p>From the trading viewpoint, it might have been a good decision, but from the family perspective, it was not. On Wednesday, August 20th, EIA Petroleum Status Report was due at 10:35 a.m. EST (7:35 a.m. MST). August 20th was also the first day of school for our 4-year-old.</p>
<p>School starts at 9 a.m., kids wake up around 6 a.m. So, between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. we have to go through the usual routine of: brushing teeth, making beds, doing morning exercises,  eating breakfast, getting dressed and finally driving to school. Meanwhile, just after we finished breakfast, I noticed that OIL started to fall in price. Fearing some bad news, I got glued to my laptop, hastily scrolling through Ameritrade&#8217;s news headlines. At the same time both kids went berserk and my husband snapped at me for &#8220;my crazy behavior.&#8221;</p>
<p>Geez, I have to be crazy in the first place, to be a Trading Mom and truly believe I can be a successful one.</p>
<p>Well, by the time I got the kids dressed and came back to my laptop, OIL had sunk over $2.5 from the high of $69.62 to the low of $67.02. My heart sunk with it. That was probably the worst moment of my trading in quite a while. I had enough &#8211; there was no way I would leave the house (and my laptop). Lawrence had to drive Brian to school.</p>
<p>The fall lasted 55 minutes and had an plausible explanation &#8211; the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report showed a huge boost in the petroleum inventories in the U.S. of <strong> 9.4       M barrels</strong> weekly change.</p>
<p>To my surprise, however, OIL stopped its rapid fall right there and crawled back up to $69+. That was a good sign, so I unloaded half of my position at $69, bringing it back in size to the original bet. And instead, shorted twice as many shares of UUP &#8211; a much less volatile PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish.</p>
<p>The next day &#8211; August 21st was fun &#8211; OIL has opened over $2 higher and I sold the rest of the shares at $72.05.</p>
<p>Today I watched OIL sink over $4 and close at $68.20&#8230;.luckily, without me.</p>
<p>OIL &#8211; iPath S&amp;P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE)</p>
<p>UUP &#8211; PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (AMEX)</p>


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