Tomorrow is Jobless Claims data… Any surprises?

Today, I got loaded up with a long DOG and short TOL positions. This is in addition to all the other stuff I have in my portfolio.

Usually, I never overtrade. So, dumping close to 60% of my account (discounting the offset) into one market direction is probably an impulsive move. Especially since I keep it overnight.

Let me just briefly explain the reason.

$INDU has moved up almost 1,000 points in the last two weeks, without any major set-backs. Now, it looks like it reached the resistance and is stuck near 9,100 level for the last 4 days. Any negative news shall send it way down. Since DOG is effectively a short position on the $INDU, I went long DOG.

TOL – Toll Brothers, Inc – stock has moved up $4 or 25% in the same two weeks and now bounces around $19.60. Meanwhile, builders still have to deal with the number of issues: oversupply, decline in prices, rising unemployment, buyers’ increased difficulty to obtain a loan, secondary market competition and credit crunch. My bet – it will fall off the resistance.

We shall get an answer in a few short hours.